偉易達(0303)
現價50, 仍然被低估, 但市場正在為它作重估的過程, 最少都應該值55
我預測未期仍然極有機會派發3.0 股息, 加上有機會拆細, 冇沽出的理由!
花旗調高偉易達(0303)07及08財年盈利預測，並將目標價由47元調高至55元，維持「買入」評級。上調原因主要是其上半年業績優預期。
花旗表示，該公司上半年盈利增長42%，優於市場共識預測的30-35%，連同派發特別息，派息比率達142%。偉易達連續兩年增加正常派息比率至32.6%，管理層不排除未來會進一步增加派息比率。
花旗稱，管理層預測承包業務、美國電訊產品及電子學習產品業務將持續增長。軟件銷售對V.Smile貢獻增加，V.Smile提升版計劃在明年下半年推出。
花旗又指出，該公司上半年業績優市場預期，調高該公司今明兩財年盈利預測6%及4%，至1.53億美元及1.65億美元。
3 comments:
Any Updated View on TPV (903)?? I know that you've some insight for the counter.......
經營風險仍然頗大, 未係時候吸納, 但長線價值開始浮現, 仲要睇實鴻海旗下的群創的表現先。
"鴻海旗下的群創"...you refer to the shipment & ASP movement?
Anyway, what I have heard from the market is that "The LCD Monitor Price" in general falling faster than estimation. Although it is natural to assume lower ASP over time, surprised falling hurt the margin, even for assemblers like TPV (903).
Besides, the momentum for LCD Monitors may slow down; partly due to its relatively high market share in the monitor market (i.e. For every 10 monitors, at least 5 or 6 are LCDs). I may guess the product shipment to grow at a rate of 8% to 10% YOY ahead.
Undoubtedly, CRT is a sunset business, outlook depends on the ASP falling rate, shipment declining rate and margin...A source of uncertainty, race between "market-share expansion" & "industry size contraction"
Growth engine lies on LCD TVs, but it seems that the margin to be volatile, hurting the profitability.
Using a quick-&-dirty forecast, at $5.05, forward diluted P/E could be around 9x to 10x, which should be near to the low end of it P/E band (7x to 14x). This could imply "長線價值" as you've mentioned.
However, the growth prospects may not be as appealing as few years ago; and I am not sure whether long-term valuation could return to 13x/14x or not.......
Competitions from EMS giants like "Hon Hai" could be further risk.....
Anyway, thanks a lot!
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