Sunday, October 29, 2006

華翔 (1195)

To phyllisamuel:

表面睇係幾好, 可能真係被市場低估, 但亦可能係因為以下幾點:

兢爭力
生產的線路版比較低檔次, 單面及雙面為主, 大昌(567)生產係多層, 技術含量較高, 而且通過大廠的認證, 有同樣技術的公司相對較少, 議價能力較高

透明度/公司管治
年報中對公司的經營狀況講得唔夠詳細, 平時又少報導
我最不滿係果批可換債, 明明手頭現金都幾多下, 仲要發呢類換股債,益晒D大行, 損害小股東利益(David Webb亦曾經狠批呢類型的可換股債), 而且前排主席話過唔會減持, 但又無啦啦沽左千幾萬股

資產負債表
存貨及應收脹大增, 負債比率亦增加不少, 我未得閒計佢d ratio, 但係好初步咁睇, 經營風險係大左, cashflow 應該係弱左 (未出年報, 睇唔到cashflow, 估下先)

成本
RMB 升值, 廠房及工人的成本, 原材料的成本(建滔(148)就係上游的原材料供應商, 議價能力超強)

3 comments:

Wing said...

我唔會訂個死線去分析間公司, 個個行業唔同, 間間公司都唔同

我會睇個current raito 同quick(acid) ratio 係咪健康先

再睇果個年度整個行業的趨勢, 間公司可唔可以把握

資產負債率超過50%的話, 我通常有戒心, 但如果預計佢未來幾年可以下降的話, 都ok

我覺得睇trend 比睇睇數字實際d, 即係用d數字去睇下間公司有冇改善

Wing said...

我唔介意長債, 但好concern 一間公司的短債!

短債太大, 存貨又多, 行業週期一轉就好大件事

隨時要配股/供股去應付債項

Anonymous said...

Sorfry Wing I have to point out that Sinotronics is actually specialized in a low volmue/high value-added model (that's probably why its gross margin is abnormally high). Its PCB products are mainly tailored to meet the various customers requesting from 2 layers to 20 layers. i agree that its main products are still low-end. However, it is regarded as one of the few PCB producers to manufacture high-end PCB products in China.

##HIDEME##