招行 (3968)
07 年NAV $4.62, 増23%
各項指標都超越同業, 非常優秀
08 年以15% 增張計, 4倍PB = 4.62 x 1.15 x 4 = 21.25
15% 增張是基於人行指導性的貸款增張為假設
4 倍PB 的估值是否過高? 閣下自行想像...
$40 蚊的招行代表預期 25% 的08年增張及高達7倍的PB, 睇番轉頭就覺得太高....
Thursday, March 20, 2008
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5 comments:
08年25%的擴張肯定做到, 但40元的估值的確是偏高. 現在是平是貴, 就見人見智了.
盈利增張25% 冇問題, 但NAV 要増25%的可能性非常低...
RMB can rise 10-15% this year, my estimate is 15%
P/B = ROE x P/E
Higher ROE, Higher P/B
Higher Growth, Higher P/E
I seldom use P/B to valuate Banks, 多一層Assumption多項Error.....
Yr 1 Book = Yr 0 Book + Net Profit - Dividend +/- NAV adjustment
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