美股
DOW 的整体跌幅唔多, 是未跌夠? 或是指數欠缺代表性? 或反映弱美元下的強勁兢爭力?
JPMC 身在問題核心的美國, 只累跌11%, 而且反彈力強, 需說BSC 幾乎係送的.....
VISA 的IPO 可以幫一幫美國大行的1Q 業績....
香港除左係ATM 外, 陰謀論咁睇 (我一向唔喜歡呢種思維模式), 是否有心人刻意把港股沽落?
唔排除, 但唔可以一相情願咁諗....
Friday, March 21, 2008
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19 comments:
wing兄:
拜讀過你ge作品...你提過鋼鐵股只係隨周期上落...不可長期持有...
但小弟發覺323馬鋼07年回定資產增加一倍..比347鞍鋼還要高..以此推算08年產量必然大幅上升..
雖然鐵礦石成本大幅上升65%...但寶鋼帶頭加價..成本有望轉嫁比消費者..
儘管中國政策不利鋼鐵股...但因為汽車基建地產等必然需要大量鋼材(外資需求亦然)..鋼鐵需求應該有增無減..加上中國十大鋼企重組..................
3月20日323收$3.66
347收$15.26
請問wing兄對323同347有何看法?
WING兄:
另外小弟想問問1398工商銀行和3968招行哪一隻較適合長期持有??
看過你ge傑作 平民資本家 知道銀行股有其局限性...咁
25蚊左右ge 2628 係咪比
22蚊左右ge 3968 更加低買
同 更加放心長期持有??
請賜教!
你可以參考會計仔的文章, 行業裡面, 347 肯定係最好的, 但並非指股價表現。
固定投資增加亦有產能過剩的危機, 成本轉嫁的能力亦有高低, 產品的定位及兢爭力亦要考慮。
目前, 最明顯的問題是成本升幅高遠需求增張及提價。
唯一的賣點係重組, 但唔會係馬鋼....最大受益者亦係鞍鋼
買鋼就買鞍鋼, 唔使多諗...
THX...WING兄遠見思慮之深..見識之廣..非我等初學者能及....
平民資本家唔係我既,係林森池池大師, 唔好攪錯, 差天拱地...
中資銀行股中, 我鐘情招行, 因為兢心核爭力及管理較佳。
人壽跟招行比, 則人壽更受惠於政策上的傾斜, 不會受到政策打壓。
幾錢買, 買邊隻, 自行決定, 我唔會比意見....
WING兄...thx..
我被"google search"..你的名字和專業分析混左...
多謝賜教!
wing兄...補充一句...你同林森池大師的思維十分相似
wing同林生點會似呀......
連作者名都搞左, 你有無搞錯呀....
未學行,先學投資, 笑死人
your pattern of thinking got a very common loophole as other people, emphasis too much on subprime and missed the main pt of how an economy work. The 'core' is turning worser and worser. You just didn't see it. Subprime is only a trigger.
you are right, but I'm not emphasis on subprime, but the China stock's fundamentals.
This is a lesson learnt of my believe of decoupling.
Subprime is a tipping point or a trigger, it is correct, but I also believe stock market will reflect the future expectation.
留意宏調收地法規對土地動工數量既影響, 冇野比防止塊地比人沒收緊要.
建築用鋼約為國內用鋼量既50%.
btw, Coca cola , Johnson & Johnson果d non-finance, non auto, non-property MNC梗係唔受影響la, 美元下跌佢地仲有利tim.
just pay attention to the pattern of drop, you will understand the signal form the market. It's just too clear that i totally disagree the so-called panic sell.
coca cola, pepsi are truly the winner of this game. And they are going to be the winner in the future. When it comes to the time that these stocks are starting to drop, the true desaster would come.
Wong:
All big slumps in the history were caused by fundamental factors (i.e. extremely over-optimistic market & over lending). From South-Sea bubble, Tulip-bubble in Holland, 1929 NY crash to the latest IT bubble....all you can name it.
It is true that the economic disasters usually come with the mega bubbles, i.e. insanely optimistic. However, I don't see this case happen for this time, since the market corrected quickly after a moderate over-optimism.
Well, but no one can help you if you don't have own ways to valuate the large caps and a mind to judge the macro-economy.
So, before you worship the trend, please kindly use your mind to think about the big picture.
For this time, the story is quite clear.
One more thing, for the art to "play cyclicals", you'd better read the books written by Peter Lynch. Only fools will mechanically play the sector without considering the macro & micro factors, and without UNDERSTANDING the company's fundmanetal, business competitiveness and management ability.
P.S. The trend in the European and US markets have started to act against you.....so good luck!
會計仔:
Yes, these quality unfeatable companies (e.g. Coca Cola, Johnson & Johnson, P&G, Google, General Electric, 3M) seldom have poor share price performance, unless their valuations are too high. Or from an extreme case, a global depression.
Still, they can weather the bad times and post rosy profits after the disasters.
I show interest in great companies like General Dynamics (GD) and United Tech(UTX); their strong product mix, strong competitiveness and diversified geographical exposure have helped them to weather the storm.
good~
i am always very neutral in analysing the market.
rising doesn't mean a bad sign against me =)
Thank you for reminding me.
My standpoint is that: the core is deteriorating yet there's no slump.
If coca and pepsi's are starting to drop, this would indicate another thing.
btw, peter lynch is one of my favorite people who really emphasis on stock pick. And my portfolio is always influenced a lot by him and always gain a satisfactory return by what his book taught me. He's very very great indeed.
Wong,
Seems you're a smart investor with strong fundamentals knowledge.
Actually, if you had more points to share, we're always welcome.
Great intrinsic power today. The adjustment seems to be over. See how chinese government curb inflation to ensure another rise of market.
*Some sectors must be dead considering the expected policy to curb inflation*
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